Epidemics and Underlying Factors of Multiple-peak Pattern on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou


主講人:王開發 西南大學教授




主講人介紹:王開發,西南大學教授、博士、碩士生導師,美國《Mathematical  Review》評論員、中國生物數學學會理事、中國醫藥數學會常務理事、重慶市數學學會常務理事、《生物數學學報》常務編委、國家自然科學基金通訊評議專家。2007年畢業于西南大學,2008-2009年在美國亞利桑那州立大學數學系訪問一年。主要從事生物數學、生物統計與計算醫學方面的研究,在病毒感染動力學機理、臨床數據分析和傳染病建模方面積累了較豐富的經驗。主持國家自然科學基金4項(在研1項)、重慶市自然科學基金2項;在國內外期刊上發表論文80余篇,其中第一/通訊作者SCI收錄30余篇、Faculty  of  1000醫學推薦收錄1篇;獲批國家發明專利2項(第二完成人);參編專著1本;第一完成人獲軍隊科技進步三等獎1項。曾獲軍隊優秀專業技術人才三類崗位津貼、中國人民解放軍院校育才獎銀獎。  

內容介紹:Background: Several outbreaks of severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in East  Asia and Southwest Asia in recent years have had a serious impact on the  countries. However, the factors that contribute to annual multiple-peak pattern  of HFMD outbreaks, and how and when do these factors play the decisive role in  the HFMD transmission is still unclear. Methods: Based on the surveillance data  of HFMD between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 in Wenzhou, China, the daily  model-free basic reproduction number and its annual average were first estimated  by incorporating incubation and infection information, then the annual  model-based basic reproduction number was computed by the proposed kinetic  model, and finally the potential impact factors of multiple-peak pattern are  assessed through the global and time-varying sensitivity analyses. Results: All  annual model-based and model-free basic reproduction numbers were significantly  higher than one. The school opening both in the spring and fall semester,  meteorological effect in the spring semester, and the interactions among them  were strongly correlated with the annual model-based basic reproduction number,  which were the main underlying factors on the annual multiple-peak pattern of  HFMD outbreaks. Conclusions: School opening was primarily responsible for peaks  of HFMD outbreaks and meteorological factors in the spring semester should also  be highly concerned. The optimum timing for social distance implementation is at  the beginning of every school semester and health education focusing on personal  hygiene and good sanitation should be highlighted in the spring semester.